Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:42:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bda…6192 other 240 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$73 (-0%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 232L
Whale WR11%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$16
14 days−$23
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$40
sports 23% −$17
politics 9% −$7
culture 6% −$3
economics 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$9
world 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 240 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 11% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)11%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)240 / 240
History coverage127d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 240 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $45 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $123 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $220 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $115 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $315 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $159 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $383 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $590 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 13 $267 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $294 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $217 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $115 $0 -0%
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $98 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $162 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $573 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $162 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $243 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $302 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $318 +$1 +0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $237 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $262 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $271 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $156 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 09 $310 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $577 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $18 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $784 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $182 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $346 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $197 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $52 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $45 1h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 2h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $45 5h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $45 6h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $45 8h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $46 9h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $46 11h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $46 13h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $46 17h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 18h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $46 26h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $46 28h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 30h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $46 32h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $46 34h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 35h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 37h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $46 38h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 40h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $46 45h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 47h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $47 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $47 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1347 history records