Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:09:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bd6…02c3 crypto 215 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$106 (-3%) realized −$106 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate41%88W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$91
14 days+$91
30 days+$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$57
world 18% −$27
other 16% +$55
weather 12% −$86
sports 1% −$22
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +10.6% +0.1% 75% 75% +22.8%
≤30d 5 +10.4% -0.1% 80% 60% +12.8%
≤90d 192 -29.0% -35.8% 36% 24% -16.7%
all 214 -20.3% -27.9% 41% 29% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 29% -13.5%
10% -34.8% 21% -21.8%
15% -41.1% 15% -29.4%
20% -46.8% 12% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses88 / 126
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)214 / 215
History coverage104d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$12 +78%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $129 +$58 +45%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $109 +$22 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $184 +$17 +10%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 18 $84 +$7 +9%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 +$7 +649%
Will Drake feature Lil Baby on ICEMAN? May 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Barra FC win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21? May 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $1 +$6 +549%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 11 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 11 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Kolossos Rhodes May 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? May 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? May 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin May 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 11? May 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 10 $1 $0 +32%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on May 10? May 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 10 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 10 $1 +$2 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 10 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 10 $1 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 9? May 09 $110 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 08 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 08 $1 +$1 +68%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on May 6? May 06 $5 −$5 -90%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 5? May 05 $5 $0 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on May 5? May 05 $4 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 3? May 02 $1 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 1? May 02 $117 −$72 -61%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 2? May 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 21¢ $27 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 98¢ $187 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $129 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $131 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $109 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $108 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $94 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $93 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $90 33d
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $91 34d
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $84 34d
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 34d
Will Drake feature Lil Baby on ICEMAN? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 37d
Will Barra FC win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes $1 38d
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes $1 38d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff BUY BNK FEARX $2 40d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes $1 40d
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 40d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes $1 40d
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up $1 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.11 · official $5.11 (match) · 537 history records