Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:53:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bd4…f2fe weather 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (178 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$256 (+7%) realized +$328 · open −$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate43%29W / 38L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day178.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$585now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$139
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (178 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -15.1% -23.2% 43% 28% -1.6%
≤30d 67 -15.1% -23.2% 43% 28% -1.6%
≤90d 67 -15.1% -23.2% 43% 28% -1.6%
all 67 -15.1% -23.2% 43% 28% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover178.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.2% 28% -1.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.6% 21% -11.0%
15% -37.3% 18% -19.6%
20% -43.4% 15% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$11 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$585
Realized+$328
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses29 / 38
Open positions11
Markets (closed)67 / 78
History coverage3d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day178.4
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Yes 87¢ 98¢ $318 $360 +$42 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? No 95¢ 98¢ $142 $147 +$5 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $36 $29 −$7 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? Yes 26¢ 6¢ $94 $23 −$71 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 19? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? Yes 29¢ 10¢ $23 $7 −$15 (-67%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 19? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 19? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-66%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 19? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 19? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 +$10 +101%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $17 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $26 −$22 -82%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 +$3 +254%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $24 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $60 +$7 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $25 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 −$28 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $32 −$23 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $13 −$7 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 +$3 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $80 +$84 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $35 +$40 +116%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $413 +$137 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $25 −$24 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $23 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $63 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $377 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$2 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $15 +$42 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? Jun 18 $344 +$69 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? Jun 18 $32 +$23 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? Jun 17 $47 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $118 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $97 +$30 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $0 $0 +158%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $7 +$7 +94%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $42 −$25 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $23 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $32 −$21 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 16m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 16m
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $47 27m
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 95¢ $47 27m
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $95 28m
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 96¢ $96 28m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? SELL Yes 68¢ $20 29m
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 89¢ $56 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 74¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 77¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 80¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 78¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 19? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 41¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 9¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 19¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $585.42 · official $585.42 (match) · 537 history records