Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:22:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
0B 0x0bd0…67b0 other 139 markets active 0h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,023 (+1%) realized +$857 · open +$166
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate60%75W / 51L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$603per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$3,237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$245
7 days+$608
14 days+$587
30 days+$2,034
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$2,364
other 11% −$1,553
sports 10% −$11
politics 9% +$21
economics 6% +$18
tech 6% +$80
culture 2% +$3
finance 1% +$15
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +17.5% +6.3% 62% 38% -5.0%
≤30d 36 +52.2% +37.7% 64% 31% -4.0%
≤90d 70 +26.1% +14.1% 66% 20% -5.7%
all 126 +14.2% +3.3% 60% 17% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.3% 17% -8.7%
10% -6.6% 10% -17.4%
15% -15.6% 7% -25.4%
20% -23.9% 4% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$1,018) neutral
Persistence
early -0% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$51 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$3,237
Realized+$857
Unrealized+$166
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses75 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)126 / 139
History coverage251d
Avg bet$603
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 92¢ $700 $797 +$97 (+14%)
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No 82¢ 92¢ $329 $367 +$38 (+11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 73¢ 74¢ $359 $362 +$3 (+1%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 92¢ $300 $321 +$21 (+7%)
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? No 81¢ 82¢ $300 $304 +$4 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 70¢ 74¢ $200 $210 +$10 (+5%)
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 64¢ 59¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+2%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 69¢ 44¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-36%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 21 $3 +$8 +255%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $101 −$18 -18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $1,399 +$273 +20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $1,018 −$102 -10%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 20 $17 +$1 +8%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $200 +$37 +18%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? Jun 20 $20 $0 -1%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 20 $300 +$13 +4%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 19 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 19 $300 −$17 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $500 +$49 +10%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $10 −$5 -53%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $200 −$50 -25%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $120 −$30 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $4,162 −$434 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $200 +$5 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $2,000 +$349 +17%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $436 +$55 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $500 +$231 +46%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $500 +$130 +26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $120 +$114 +95%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $122 −$22 -18%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 10 $12 −$1 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $7,687 +$130 +2%
Will Justin Murphy be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey? Jun 03 $22 +$6 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,880 +$938 +33%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $2,510 +$224 +9%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $1,596 +$29 +2%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 25 $493 −$8 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $5 +$78 +1562%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $2,518 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $2,503 +$72 +3%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026? May 22 $201 +$4 +2%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? May 22 $404 −$25 -6%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? May 21 $130 −$4 -3%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 21 $24 −$1 -3%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? May 21 $803 +$53 +7%
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 20 $68 +$12 +17%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026? May 20 $61 +$13 +20%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $1,500 +$89 +6%
Will Navi win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 18 $12 +$9 +70%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 17 $262 +$26 +10%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026? May 17 $21 +$1 +3%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? May 16 $1,003 +$42 +4%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 16 $103 −$87 -84%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 16 $1,000 +$7 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? May 12 $1,373 −$12 -1%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $30 16m
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $11 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $83 1h
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? BUY No 81¢ $302 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,672 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $101 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $145 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $68 14h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes $10 14h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $23 15h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 16h
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e BUY No 82¢ $101 25h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 98¢ $18 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 92¢ $237 25h
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e BUY No 82¢ $29 25h
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e BUY No 82¢ $201 25h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 25h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL Yes 90¢ $20 25h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 25h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $302 25h
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $303 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $300 39h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 40h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 73¢ $102 40h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $200 40h
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? SELL No 88¢ $283 40h
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY No 94¢ $300 40h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $100 44h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $306 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,236.74 · official $3,236.74 (match) · 375 history records