Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:31:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0B 0x0bcf…04fc sports 464 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,661 (-5%) realized −$2,820 · open +$159
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate59%270W / 190L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$626now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$111
7 days−$76
14 days−$948
30 days−$878
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$775
other 36% −$1,043
sports 20% −$961
world 2% +$12
politics 0% −$96
culture 0% −$15
economics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -5.7% -14.7% 59% 44% -10.6%
≤30d 110 -9.9% -18.5% 63% 35% -13.4%
≤90d 283 -24.8% -32.0% 52% 29% -15.7%
all 460 -9.4% -18.0% 59% 41% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 41% -14.3%
10% -25.8% 27% -22.5%
15% -33.0% 21% -30.0%
20% -39.6% 14% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$49 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$626
Realized−$2,820
Unrealized+$159
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses270 / 190
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions2
Markets (closed)460 / 464
History coverage148d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 460 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? No 89¢ 97¢ $467 $512 +$44 (+9%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 0¢ 81¢ $0 $115 +$115 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 22 $310 −$8 -3%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $104 +$5 +5%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $671 −$3 -0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 +$14 +134%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $40 −$40 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 21 $85 +$1 +1%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $12 $0 +3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $280 +$50 +18%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $301 +$41 +14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $101 +$49 +49%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $145 −$144 -99%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $547 +$67 +12%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $74 +$26 +36%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $90 +$11 +12%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $313 +$48 +15%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $246 −$1 -0%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $54 +$66 +124%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $54 −$53 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$6 -12%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $127 +$23 +18%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $306 −$216 -71%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $201 +$11 +6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $301 −$2 -1%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $301 +$36 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$46 +23%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $265 +$35 +13%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $102 −$9 -9%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $502 +$86 +17%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $209 −$209 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $218 −$217 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $301 −$300 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $238 +$61 +26%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $403 +$120 +30%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $501 +$28 +6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $913 −$79 -9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $202 −$12 -6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $704 −$215 -30%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $469 +$84 +18%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$57 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $412 −$7 -2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $661 +$113 +17%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $101 −$48 -48%
Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 65¢ $101 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 76¢ $302 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $102 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $112 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $109 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 4h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $95 4h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 4h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 77¢ $310 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $357 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 89¢ $399 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 90¢ $269 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $210 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $13 23h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 84¢ $24 24h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 35¢ $10 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $226 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $223 24h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 67¢ $40 26h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies 86¢ $86 32h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 84¢ $85 32h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 3¢ $12 32h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 2¢ $12 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY 2¢ $10 36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $330 37h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 99¢ $342 38h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 38h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $128 38h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $151 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $626.39 · official $726.40 · 1399 history records