Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:04:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0B
0x0bcf…9f3f
weather · 68 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$86 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$86 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses26 / 39
Open positions3
Markets (closed)65 / 68
History coverage23d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 3 History 65 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$69
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Yes 49¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 30? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 22? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 22? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 31? No 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 29? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during Cabinet meeting? No 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 2? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 1? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Cabinet meeting? No 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on May 27? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 1? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 1? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 2? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $9 −$8 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $10 −$4 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 1? Jun 02 $1 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $16 −$15 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $7 −$7 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 01 $33 −$18 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 1? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +83%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 01 $1 +$4 +353%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 01 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 01 $3 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +90%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 1? Jun 01 $6 +$4 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 1? Jun 01 $4 −$2 -52%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 31? May 31 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 31? May 31 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31? May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 30? May 30 $4 +$9 +226%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30? May 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 30? May 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 29? May 29 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 29? May 29 $5 +$5 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on May 29? May 29 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 29? May 29 $26 −$25 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 27? May 28 $10 +$24 +230%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 27? May 28 $28 +$13 +47%
Will Trump say "Deal" 15+ times during Cabinet meeting? May 28 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during C May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Cabinet meeting? May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 63% −$41
crypto 25% −$26
tech 7% −$14
other 4% −$1
politics 1% −$2
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 28h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 28h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 4? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 4? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 4? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 4? SELL Yes 54¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 4? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 4? BUY Yes 61¢ $8 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 4? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 10d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 11d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 11d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 2? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 11d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 2? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 11d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 11d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 2? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 11d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 11d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-38.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -22.1% -29.5% 50% 25% -33.8%
≤30d 65 -32.4% -38.8% 40% 23% -33.1%
≤90d 65 -32.4% -38.8% 40% 23% -33.1%
all 65 -32.4% -38.8% 40% 23% -33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.8% 23% -33.1%
10% -44.7% 15% -39.5%
15% -50.0% 14% -45.3%
20% -54.9% 11% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.18 · official $11.18 (match) · 141 history records