Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:52:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0B 0x0bce…558c sports 482 markets active 1h ago coverage 622d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,373 (+8%) realized +$6,426 · open −$53
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate62%290W / 180L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$114
7 days+$177
14 days+$177
30 days+$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$5,593
other 8% +$1,005
world 0% −$230
politics 0% −$38
crypto 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +13.2% +2.4% 45% 42% +3.8%
≤30d 33 +13.2% +2.4% 45% 42% +3.8%
≤90d 33 +13.2% +2.4% 45% 42% +3.8%
all 470 +2.0% -7.7% 62% 61% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 61% -2.4%
10% -16.5% 56% -11.7%
15% -24.6% 46% -20.2%
20% -32.0% 35% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$115 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

622d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized+$6,426
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses290 / 180
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions8
Markets (closed)470 / 482
History coverage622d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 470 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Over 78¢ 100¢ $50 $64 +$14 (+28%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 60¢ 100¢ $30 $50 +$20 (+67%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 84¢ 100¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+19%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 84¢ 66¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-21%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 75¢ 24¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-69%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 63¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-87%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Sweden 68¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 51¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $20 +$11 +55%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $18 −$18 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $6 +$34 +550%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $30 +$33 +109%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $5 +$15 +291%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 20 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 19 $20 +$17 +83%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 +$23 +226%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $102 +$103 +102%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 +$107 +262%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $81 −$80 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 +$18 +36%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $93 +$68 +73%
France vs. Senegal: Team to Take First Corner Jun 16 $39 −$39 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $43 −$42 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $104 +$260 +250%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $233 −$230 -99%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Nov 14 $413 −$413 -100%
Steelers vs. Chargers Nov 10 $609 −$609 -100%
Celtics vs. Magic Nov 10 $530 −$530 -100%
Ravens vs. Vikings Nov 10 $350 +$180 +52%
Falcons vs. Colts: O/U 48.5 Nov 08 $350 −$350 -100%
Saints vs. Panthers Nov 08 $350 −$350 -100%
Spread: Texans (-3.5) Nov 08 $350 −$350 -100%
Browns vs. Jets Nov 08 $300 −$300 -100%
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Nov 08 $50 +$29 +59%
Hornets vs. Heat Nov 08 $50 +$28 +56%
Bulls vs. Bucks Nov 08 $50 +$31 +61%
Cavaliers vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 115.5 Nov 08 $50 +$35 +70%
Celtics vs. Magic: 1H O/U 117.5 Nov 08 $50 +$41 +82%
Hornets vs. Heat: 1H O/U 117.5 Nov 08 $50 +$46 +92%
Hellenic Championship: Sebastian Korda vs Lorenzo Musetti Nov 08 $50 +$56 +113%
Raptors vs. Hawks Nov 08 $50 +$59 +117%
WTA Finals, Final Stage: Aryna Sabalenka vs Amanda Anisimova Nov 08 $94 +$63 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $50 33m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 95¢ $82 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 92¢ $111 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $30 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 84¢ $201 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 68¢ $50 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $10 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $15 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $20 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $30 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 46¢ $18 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 32¢ $10 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 26¢ $20 4h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 83¢ $14 5h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 58¢ $20 6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes $0 13h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 47¢ $30 13h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 14h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 14h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 57¢ $20 19h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 19h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 19h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 63¢ $20 19h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 26h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 26h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco BUY 51¢ $20 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.17 · official $178.97 · 943 history records