Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:59:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bcb…4a53 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$71 (-9%) realized −$64 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days−$140
14 days−$75
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$147
sports 13% +$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -19.7% -27.4% 57% 57% -30.9%
≤30d 8 -9.2% -17.8% 62% 62% -19.3%
≤90d 8 -9.2% -17.8% 62% 62% -19.3%
all 8 -9.2% -17.8% 62% 62% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 62% -19.3%
10% -25.7% 38% -27.0%
15% -32.9% 38% -34.0%
20% -39.5% 25% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$80 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$64
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage12d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 51¢ 34¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $50 +$9 +17%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$18 +36%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $201 +$24 +12%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$65 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 7d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $101 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.43 · official $63.82 (match) · 16 history records