Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:51:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0B 0x0bca…18a7 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$194 (+19%) realized +$191 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$249per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$403now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$137
politics 10% −$7
crypto 10% +$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +33.5% +20.8% 67% 67% +21.2%
≤30d 3 +33.5% +20.8% 67% 67% +21.2%
≤90d 3 +33.5% +20.8% 67% 67% +21.2%
all 3 +33.5% +20.8% 67% 67% +21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.8% 67% +21.2%
10% +9.3% 67% +9.6%
15% -1.3% 33% -1.0%
20% -11.0% 33% -10.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$7 · ×14.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×29.75 per $1 lost it wins $29.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$403
Realized+$191
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$249
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $400 $403 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $390 +$134 +34%
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Jun 20 $102 −$7 -7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $404 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $422 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $96 4h
Trump out as President before GTA VI? SELL No 49¢ $96 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $92 4h
Trump out as President before GTA VI? BUY No 50¢ $102 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 68¢ $102 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $174 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402.99 · official $402.99 (match) · 12 history records