Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:10:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0B
0x0bc9…4786
weather · 310 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$25 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$45 · open −$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$59
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses43 / 211
Open positions55
Markets (closed)254 / 310
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day57.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 55 History 254 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$45
14 days+$45
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 13? Yes 11¢ 99¢ $1 $9 +$8 (+815%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Yes 12¢ 100¢ $1 $9 +$8 (+733%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Yes 12¢ 96¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+704%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 14? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 14? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Yes 14¢ 22¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+57%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Yes 14¢ 7¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-77%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 14? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-80%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Yes 14¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$4 +333%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$5 +459%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $0 +$2 +850%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$5 +446%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +587%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$5 +434%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +696%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$7 +637%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +585%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$5 +464%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$9 +856%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$8 +761%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$5 +464%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$5 +537%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +533%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +534%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +585%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 6¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 26¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 13h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 27¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June BUY Yes 5¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 254 +13.7% +2.9% 17% 17% +6.0%
≤30d 254 +13.7% +2.9% 17% 17% +6.0%
≤90d 254 +13.7% +2.9% 17% 17% +6.0%
all 254 +13.7% +2.9% 17% 17% +6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover57.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.9% 17% +6.0%
10% ← realistic here -7.0% 17% -4.2%
15% -16.0% 17% -13.4%
20% -24.2% 17% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.52 · official $58.70 (match) · 372 history records