Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:41:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bc8…7a00 politics 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 291d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$1
world 30% −$1
other 13% −$1
sports 10% $0
crypto 7% $0
culture 6% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -10.0%
all 36 -3.3% -12.5% 33% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 3% -9.8%
10% -20.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

291d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage291d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $70 −$3 -5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $34 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $33 +$1 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $1 $0 -27%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $1 $0 -9%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $2 −$1 -64%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 08 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August? Aug 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $34 $0 +0%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $1 $0 +11%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $20 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $26 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $26 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $34 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $27 29h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $38 33h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $38 33h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $35 40h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $24 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $1 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $9 42h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $24 47h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $10 47h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $33 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $0 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $16 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $12 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $21 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $11 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $40 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $40 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 5d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 270d
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? SELL No 97¢ $34 270d
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? BUY No 97¢ $34 270d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $34 270d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.77 · official $21.77 (match) · 133 history records