Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bc8…adf7 finance 108 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$982 (-3%) realized −$982 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate68%73W / 35L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$342per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$154
7 days+$406
14 days−$807
30 days−$1,428
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 83% −$1,083
sports 12% −$422
weather 4% +$31
politics 1% +$2
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -2.1% -11.5% 81% 26% -3.2%
≤30d 101 -6.8% -15.7% 68% 30% -12.7%
≤90d 108 -7.6% -16.4% 68% 30% -12.4%
all 108 -7.6% -16.4% 68% 30% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 30% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 9% -20.8%
15% -31.7% 6% -28.4%
20% -38.4% 2% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$120 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$982
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses73 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 108
History coverage34d
Avg bet$342
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 108 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? Jun 17 $68 +$11 +16%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 17? Jun 17 $160 +$11 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $189 +$10 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 16? Jun 16 $79 +$31 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $159 −$4 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$2 -45%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? Jun 16 $41 −$27 -64%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $422 +$37 +9%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $160 +$9 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $425 +$110 +26%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? Jun 15 $203 −$33 -16%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? Jun 12 $222 +$37 +16%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $150 +$18 +12%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 11? Jun 11 $369 +$49 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $94 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $46 +$3 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 11? Jun 11 $142 +$11 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $37 −$37 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 11? Jun 11 $105 −$45 -43%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 11? Jun 11 $313 +$22 +7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? Jun 10 $431 +$21 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 10? Jun 10 $978 +$71 +7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 10? Jun 10 $249 +$43 +17%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 10? Jun 10 $267 +$22 +8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? Jun 10 $234 +$23 +10%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $185 +$2 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $46 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Jun 10 $471 +$29 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 9? Jun 09 $240 +$48 +20%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $80 +$20 +25%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? Jun 09 $154 +$11 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $166 +$24 +14%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 9? Jun 09 $105 +$9 +8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 8? Jun 08 $534 +$64 +12%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 8? Jun 08 $283 −$69 -24%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $97 −$77 -79%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 8? Jun 08 $546 −$71 -13%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 8? Jun 08 $48 −$36 -76%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 8? Jun 08 $52 +$2 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $139 −$29 -21%
Libema Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Lin Zhu Jun 07 $66 +$5 +8%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $148 +$50 +34%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 06 $460 +$10 +2%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $215 −$105 -49%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 5? Jun 05 $68 +$31 +45%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 5? Jun 05 $80 +$4 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? SELL No 38¢ $79 9m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 17? SELL No 78¢ $133 11m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 17? SELL No 78¢ $38 13m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 17? BUY No 72¢ $160 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? BUY No 32¢ $66 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? BUY No 32¢ $2 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 16? BUY Yes 71¢ $79 11h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? SELL No 40¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 62¢ $54 12h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $68 13h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $91 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $189 13h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 72¢ $4 15h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 16h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 16h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 19h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? SELL Yes 58¢ $1 21h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 21h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 61¢ $128 22h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 56¢ $217 22h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 56¢ $7 22h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 53¢ $100 22h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 53¢ $1 22h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 53¢ $5 23h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 52¢ $322 23h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 49¢ $100 24h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 54¢ $34 25h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 54¢ $4 25h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 51¢ $38 25h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 51¢ $2 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1094 history records