trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? | No | 68¢ | 65¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? | No | 73¢ | 72¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? | Yes | 40¢ | 36¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-9%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? | Yes | 7¢ | 10¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+50%) |
| Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 12? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 12? | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | -24% |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -67% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 12? | Jun 12 | $6 | −$6 | -92% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -63.7% | -67.1% | 0% | 0% | -52.2% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -63.7% | -67.1% | 0% | 0% | -52.2% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -63.7% | -67.1% | 0% | 0% | -52.2% |
| all | 3 | -63.7% | -67.1% | 0% | 0% | -52.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -67.1% | 0% | -52.2% |
| 10% | -70.3% | 0% | -56.8% |
| 15% | -73.2% | 0% | -60.9% |
| 20% | -75.8% | 0% | -64.8% |