Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:36:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bc6…7b88 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$96 (-8%) realized −$99 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate87%13W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$408now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$277
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$273
sports 36% +$176
economics 2% $0
world 2% +$1
tech 2% $0
weather 1% $0
politics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +7.0% -3.2% 50% 50% -34.0%
≤90d 11 +2.0% -7.7% 82% 18% -20.6%
all 15 +1.6% -8.1% 87% 13% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 13% -20.0%
10% -16.9% 13% -27.6%
15% -24.9% 13% -34.6%
20% -32.3% 13% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$210 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$408
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses13 / 2
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage178d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $404 $408 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $281 −$277 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $143 +$163 +114%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $156 +$157 +101%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on March 6? May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition May 18 $12 $0 +1%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? May 18 $12 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? May 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? May 18 $13 $0 +3%
Negative GDP growth in 2025? May 18 $19 $0 +1%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 17 $146 −$144 -99%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 Feb 03 $12 $0 +1%
Will Tesla reach $645 in January? Feb 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in December? Jan 09 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $407.75 · official $407.75 (match) · 29 history records