Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:56:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0B 0x0bc5…db85 sports 148 markets active 0h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,356 (-10%) realized −$3,346 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate63%91W / 53L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days−$134
14 days−$340
30 days−$681
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$2,013
sports 30% −$1,662
other 8% +$8
finance 2% +$15
politics 1% −$1
tech 1% +$71
economics 0% +$14
culture 0% −$12
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -10.4% -19.0% 58% 55% -27.8%
≤30d 55 -17.9% -25.8% 56% 45% -40.9%
≤90d 81 -17.0% -24.9% 58% 42% -22.4%
all 144 -15.5% -23.5% 63% 39% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 39% -19.1%
10% -30.8% 24% -26.8%
15% -37.5% 15% -33.9%
20% -43.6% 8% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$119 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$3,346
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses91 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions3
Markets (closed)144 / 148
History coverage161d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 Under 67¢ 96¢ $21 $30 +$9 (+43%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 49¢ 16¢ $27 $9 −$18 (-68%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $13 +$3 +23%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $17 +$8 +46%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $20 +$10 +48%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 +$7 +140%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $30 +$10 +32%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $14 −$14 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $10 +$5 +46%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $30 +$9 +31%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $35 +$18 +52%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $17 +$15 +90%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $45 −$45 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 +$2 +11%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $40 +$18 +44%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 +$3 +65%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$9 +86%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $25 +$8 +31%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$3 +26%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 22 $11 +$1 +5%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $11 +$12 +105%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $27 +$3 +11%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $66 −$65 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$2 +14%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $126 −$125 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$2 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +83%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? Jun 14 $142 −$142 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $244 −$206 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 0m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $21 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 68¢ $17 3h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $13 4h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 4h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 29¢ $6 29h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $10 29h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $20 29h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $30 46h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 46h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $10 47h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $10 47h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $14 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $10 2d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 31¢ $10 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $30 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $25 3d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $20 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 65¢ $35 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $2 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $17 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 89¢ $45 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $28 4d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY No 90¢ $20 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $40 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 5d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.44 · official $40.02 (match) · 477 history records