Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:20:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

0B 0x0bc2…7639 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$51 (-2%) realized +$84 · open −$135

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip

Net edge+14%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$403per market

Trades / day1.5pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$1,724now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+13.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+25.9%	+13.9%	67%	67%	-24.7%
≤30d	3	+25.9%	+13.9%	67%	67%	-24.7%
≤90d	3	+25.9%	+13.9%	67%	67%	-24.7%
all	3	+25.9%	+13.9%	67%	67%	-24.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+13.9%	67%	-24.7%
10%	+3.0%	67%	-31.9%
15%	-7.0%	67%	-38.5%
20%	-16.1%	33%	-44.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 88% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -17% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +26% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$65 vs −$180 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.72 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$1,724

Realized+$84

Unrealized−$135

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 6

History coverage5d

Avg bet$403

Trades / day1.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$1,110	$1,015	−$95 (-9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$750	$710	−$40 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$85	+$115	+134%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	Jun 14	$35	+$15	+44%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$184	−$180	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$1,140	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY	47¢	$203	12h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$198	2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	69¢	$35	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	18¢	$184	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY No	42¢	$85	3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$556	5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$19	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,724.50 · official $1,924.50 · 15 history records