Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:41:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bc2…c335 crypto 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (90 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$86 (-20%) realized −$93 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%25W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day90.2pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$84
other 11% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (90 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -13.5% -21.8% 50% 50% -25.2%
≤30d 50 -13.5% -21.8% 50% 50% -25.2%
≤90d 50 -13.5% -21.8% 50% 50% -25.2%
all 50 -13.5% -21.8% 50% 50% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 50% -25.2%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 46% -32.3%
15% -36.1% 40% -38.9%
20% -42.4% 24% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses25 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day90.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan to win the second half? Yes 56¢ 94¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 +$15 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$9 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$4 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$9 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +35%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$8 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $59 −$59 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan to win the second half? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.70 · official $16.70 (match) · 123 history records