Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:26:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
0B 0x0bbe…ee84 other 304 markets active 1h ago coverage 764d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,389 (-4%) realized −$1,388 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate76%230W / 73L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$699now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$79
14 days−$124
30 days−$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$368
other 20% +$490
crypto 16% −$2,730
politics 15% +$459
economics 12% −$27
sports 2% −$10
finance 1% +$30
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.3% -12.5% 33% 0% -12.3%
≤30d 9 -2.0% -11.3% 11% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 19 -3.3% -12.5% 37% 5% -9.3%
all 303 +0.1% -9.5% 76% 8% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 8% -13.2%
10% -18.1% 6% -21.5%
15% -26.0% 5% -29.1%
20% -33.3% 4% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$56 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

764d coverage
Net worth$699
Realized−$1,388
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses230 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)303 / 304
History coverage764d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $680 $680 +$0 (+0%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $750 −$65 -9%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $1,116 −$17 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $700 +$4 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $700 −$8 -1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 12 $760 −$11 -1%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 12 $1,890 −$27 -1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 09 $731 −$10 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 27 $10 $0 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 27 $701 −$5 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 14 $675 +$71 +10%
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? May 08 $136 −$16 -12%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? May 08 $500 +$3 +1%
Trump out as President before 2027? May 04 $1,396 −$51 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 04 $1,020 +$10 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 24 $609 +$100 +16%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 24 $460 +$33 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 13 $24 −$16 -67%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 13 $1,139 +$71 +6%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Mar 28 $622 −$31 -5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 18 $654 −$15 -2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? Mar 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Was Kanye hacked? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 15 $659 −$5 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Mar 05 $771 −$31 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Feb 20 $101 +$93 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Feb 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Feb 20 $337 +$90 +27%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 14 $53 −$21 -40%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Feb 05 $122 −$6 -5%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $409 +$309 +76%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 16 $580 +$113 +20%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 11 $600 −$26 -4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 03 $600 +$7 +1%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 28 $600 −$14 -2%
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Dec 22 $537 +$34 +6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Dec 07 $500 +$49 +10%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 20 $609 −$12 -2%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 15 $500 −$6 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 08 $519 −$6 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 06 $524 +$44 +8%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 04 $510 −$6 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Nov 01 $506 +$23 +4%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 27 $50 +$194 +389%
Maduro out in 2025? Oct 27 $290 −$4 -1%
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 20 $234 +$191 +82%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 18 $394 −$14 -4%
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 16 $210 +$30 +14%
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? Oct 15 $230 −$22 -10%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 14 $190 +$43 +22%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 13 $226 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $681 1h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 57¢ $685 1h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $750 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $39 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $704 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $43 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $700 7d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $29 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $692 7d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $23 11d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $700 11d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $710 11d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $50 11d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $50 15d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $702 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 5¢ $34 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 94¢ $687 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 4¢ $29 27d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 96¢ $701 27d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $10 28d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 97¢ $651 28d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 97¢ $45 28d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $10 41d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $701 41d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? SELL No 97¢ $746 41d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $39 41d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 88¢ $675 46d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $59 46d
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 15¢ $120 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $699.38 · official $699.38 (match) · 828 history records