Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0B 0x0bbb…f7d1 other 163 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,707 (+1%) realized +$2,707 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate17%27W / 134L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$1,600per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1,290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$32
14 days+$20
30 days+$1,758
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$2,035
politics 32% −$103
sports 16% +$744
economics 1% −$5
crypto 1% +$3
world 1% −$2
tech 1% −$2
culture 1% −$1
finance 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 40 +4.2% -5.7% 12% 10% -7.3%
≤90d 124 -5.4% -14.4% 10% 6% -8.8%
all 161 +4.8% -5.2% 17% 12% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 12% -8.6%
10% -14.3% 12% -17.3%
15% -22.6% 12% -25.3%
20% -30.1% 10% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,167) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$158 vs −$12 · ×13.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.65 per $1 lost it wins $2.65
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$1,290
Realized+$2,707
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses27 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)161 / 163
History coverage122d
Avg bet$1,600
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,043 $1,042 −$1 (-0%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $247 $248 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $1,842 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $1,149 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,793 −$4 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,605 −$4 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $910 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $8,835 −$10 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $1,015 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $991 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $3,850 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,135 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $2,478 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,547 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,513 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,558 −$5 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,404 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,148 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $8,061 −$10 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $75 +$67 +90%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $991 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,036 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $2,542 −$4 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 05 $51 +$71 +140%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? Jun 03 $1,351 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 03 $1,082 +$5 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $1,064 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $419 −$1 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 26 $1,004 −$1 -0%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 25 $78 −$78 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $68 +$63 +93%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,419 −$2 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 22 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $3,867 −$4 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,668 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,548 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $1,475 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 20 $1,385 −$2 -0%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 20 $1,226 +$1,839 +150%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 10 $3,298 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,659 −$3 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $3,176 −$5 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,651 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 08 $1,572 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,573 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,571 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $3,322 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $3,231 −$4 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,639 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,043 1h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $808 3h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $809 6h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,148 22h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,149 24h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,127 24h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,129 27h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $961 27h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $962 30h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $909 47h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $910 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,109 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,110 2d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,014 3d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,015 3d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $990 5d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $991 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,012 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,013 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,133 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,135 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,052 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,054 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $979 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $980 7d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 8d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $178 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,277 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,279 8d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,286 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,289.69 · official $1,289.69 (match) · 551 history records