Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:50:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0B 0x0bb9…9725 world 128 markets active 0h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$33,905 (+28%) realized +$33,890 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%43W / 80L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$936per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$487est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$394
7 days+$6,898
14 days+$6,588
30 days+$8,469
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$25,877
sports 21% −$1,585
other 8% −$509
politics 0% −$76
crypto 0% −$27
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -8.2% -16.9% 50% 50% +79.8%
≤30d 18 +38.1% +24.9% 44% 44% +53.8%
≤90d 65 +18.8% +7.5% 43% 38% +12.6%
all 123 -9.0% -17.6% 35% 33% +17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 33% +17.5%
10% -25.5% 28% +6.3%
15% -32.7% 25% -4.0%
20% -39.3% 24% -13.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +30% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$698) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -35% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$835 vs −$155 · ×5.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.93 per $1 lost it wins $2.93
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$258
Realized+$33,890
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses43 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$487
Open positions5
Markets (closed)123 / 128
History coverage195d
Avg bet$936
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 17¢ 100¢ $19 $113 +$94 (+492%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? No 14¢ 17¢ $65 $80 +$15 (+23%)
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? Yes 36¢ 32¢ $42 $37 −$6 (-13%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? No 1¢ 2¢ $19 $28 +$9 (+50%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 8¢ 0¢ $98 $1 −$97 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $104 −$102 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $89 −$87 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $77 −$75 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $178 +$92 +52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2,714 +$5,134 +189%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $2,402 +$1,839 +77%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1,297 +$228 +18%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027? Jun 08 $20 −$1 -5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 08 $600 −$187 -31%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $1,101 −$122 -11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $1,800 +$1,577 +88%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $70 −$70 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $95 −$93 -97%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $1,170 +$349 +30%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 22 $210 +$170 +81%
Will Israel win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 22 $0 +$1 +900%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1,297 −$798 -62%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $593 +$325 +55%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $77 −$74 -96%
Iran leadership change by December 31? May 08 $1,233 −$311 -25%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 20 $457 −$450 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $1,260 +$356 +28%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $4,184 +$145 +4%
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in April 2026? Apr 16 $62 +$114 +183%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $486 −$7 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $3,701 −$1,972 -53%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 12 $2,345 +$665 +28%
Celtics vs. Knicks Apr 10 $355 −$132 -37%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? Apr 09 $2,541 +$459 +18%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 08 $7,336 −$604 -8%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $1,980 +$1,701 +86%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $1,188 +$2,105 +177%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 07 $1,560 −$798 -51%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 07 $110 −$107 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $485 −$473 -98%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 07 $218 −$218 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $2,823 −$24 -1%
Will Iran strike Oman again in March? Apr 07 $12 +$11 +92%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $757 +$425 +56%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $203 −$9 -5%
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026? Apr 06 $425 −$238 -56%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 06 $4,780 +$220 +5%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Apr 06 $131 +$44 +33%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Apr 05 $270 −$264 -98%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $20,202 −$5 -0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $389 −$188 -48%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 04 $165 −$162 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 15¢ $71 11m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 15¢ $13 13m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 14¢ $37 27m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? SELL No 3¢ $15 39m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? SELL No 3¢ $1 39m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? SELL No 3¢ $90 40m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? SELL No 3¢ $7 42m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 14¢ $34 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 14¢ $36 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $7 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 15¢ $10 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY No 4¢ $0 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY No 4¢ $68 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 14¢ $261 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 11h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 11h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $58 11h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 11h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 11h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 11h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $48 11h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 11h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 11h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $104 11h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $81 14h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 14h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 25¢ $77 14h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $39 43h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $4 43h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $0 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $258.11 · official $257.50 (match) · 1449 history records