Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:48:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0B 0x0bb8…46d2 crypto 297 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$240 (+1%) realized +$247 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate64%188W / 104L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$231est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$910now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$821
7 days+$232
14 days+$258
30 days+$725
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$564
crypto 18% −$655
other 9% +$1,227
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -8.9% -17.6% 45% 45% -6.0%
≤30d 67 -7.1% -15.9% 51% 51% -5.8%
≤90d 97 -10.5% -19.0% 49% 48% -9.9%
all 292 -13.6% -21.8% 64% 25% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 25% -9.5%
10% -29.3% 20% -18.1%
15% -36.1% 16% -26.0%
20% -42.4% 11% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$75 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$910
Realized+$247
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses188 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$231
Open positions5
Markets (closed)292 / 297
History coverage117d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $250 $249 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Korea Republic 79¢ 78¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 65¢ 64¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 49¢ 48¢ $160 $158 −$2 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 54¢ 54¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$30 +196%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $625 +$971 +155%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,014 −$471 -46%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $45 −$44 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $102 +$142 +140%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$52 +103%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$97 +48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $23 +$24 +103%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$31 +307%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 +$7 +48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $129 +$111 +86%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $202 +$129 +64%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $147 +$174 +119%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $407 −$407 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $303 +$166 +55%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $253 −$250 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $514 −$10 -2%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $504 +$148 +29%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $302 +$68 +23%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $302 +$77 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $355 −$350 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $48 −$33 -69%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $139 +$229 +165%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $65 −$64 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $242 +$106 +44%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $91 +$43 +48%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $811 −$162 -20%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $564 −$560 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $203 +$161 +79%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $342 +$306 +89%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $504 +$163 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 01 $720 +$463 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 01 $274 −$28 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 01 $532 +$243 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 01 $930 −$930 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 36m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $58 37m
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 79¢ $201 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $122 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 65¢ $101 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $41 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 65¢ $101 1h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 79¢ $50 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL 94¢ $45 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $1,595 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 39¢ $609 19h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 29¢ $544 19h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $913 21h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $101 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $15 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 31¢ $15 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $45 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 41¢ $102 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 49¢ $51 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 45h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $47 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 6¢ $21 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $23 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $910.34 · official $905.69 (match) · 1295 history records