Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0B 0x0bb7…2ec3 crypto 664 markets active 4h ago coverage 82d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$111,443 (+147%) realized +$111,692 · open −$249
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate68%441W / 205L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day32.9pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$19,246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 82d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$7,661
other 22% −$333
sports 2% −$863
world 0% +$52
politics 0% −$7
tech 0% +$2
finance 0% +$3
economics 0% +$1
weather 0% +$12
culture 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +2.8% -7.0% 59% 47% -10.3%
≤30d 398 -1.2% -10.6% 76% 37% +1.1%
≤90d 646 -0.4% -9.9% 68% 40% +1.5%
all 646 -0.4% -9.9% 68% 40% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 40% +1.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 31% -8.3%
15% -26.4% 22% -17.1%
20% -33.6% 16% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$104 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$19,246
Realized+$111,692
Unrealized−$249
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses441 / 205
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions17
Markets (closed)646 / 664
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$114
Trades / day32.9
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 646 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2,630 $3,032 +$402 (+15%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2,743 $2,805 +$62 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2,829 $2,751 −$78 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2,788 $2,737 −$50 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,400 $2,398 −$2 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $2,550 $2,358 −$192 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,500 $1,507 +$7 (+0%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,000 $944 −$55 (-6%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $468 $351 −$117 (-25%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $474 $237 −$237 (-50%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $32 $32 +$1 (+2%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 67¢ 90¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+34%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 74¢ 84¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+13%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 98¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+49%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 64¢ 56¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 23¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$12 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $43 +$14 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $145 +$165 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$17 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $281 −$281 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $302 −$302 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $249 −$249 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $203 +$62 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $320 +$286 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $178 −$178 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $461 +$296 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $93 +$74 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $329 −$329 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $105 +$203 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $249 +$311 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $135 +$140 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $125 +$227 +181%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $11 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 08 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 06 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 05 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 04 $11 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 02 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 02 $20 $0 +2%
Ruben Gallego out as US Senator by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 01 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 31 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 30 $20 +$6 +31%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 30 $11 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 30 $20 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 30 $11 +$1 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $482 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $34 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $71 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $241 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $57 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $33 3h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,030 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $513 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $513 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $42 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $30 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $30 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $12 11h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $30 17h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 17h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $67 17h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $110 17h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 17h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 17h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $154 17h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 17h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $29 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,245.65 · official $19,245.66 (match) · 3500 history records