Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:10:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bb7…bd5d other 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,212 (-1%) realized −$1,212 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate20%24W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$945per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$750now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$19
14 days−$20
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$6
politics 35% −$48
sports 11% −$1,103
world 2% −$40
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 67 -15.8% -23.8% 4% 0% -11.5%
all 123 -2.1% -11.4% 20% 11% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 11% -10.5%
10% -19.9% 11% -19.0%
15% -27.6% 9% -26.9%
20% -34.7% 5% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,416) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$17 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$750
Realized−$1,212
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses24 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage138d
Avg bet$945
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $751 $750 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,439 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $2,008 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,416 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $4,618 −$6 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $1,321 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2,669 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,025 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $2,605 −$4 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,883 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,747 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $501 $0 +0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $950 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $1,645 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $639 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 27 $844 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $2,230 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,054 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $2,044 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? May 19 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $1,477 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,335 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 07 $1,428 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $2,169 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,357 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,366 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $2,346 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $2,214 −$2 -0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 Apr 29 $752 +$2 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,889 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,360 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,360 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,344 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,388 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,359 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,309 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,247 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $2,152 −$2 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,146 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,057 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $1,259 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,918 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,906 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $98 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $105 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $102 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. Rockets Apr 10 $1,105 −$1,105 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $663 1h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $664 2h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $410 21h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $410 22h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $662 23h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $663 26h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $751 2d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $650 4d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $651 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,414 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,416 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,412 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,414 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,320 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,321 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,312 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,314 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,166 11d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,168 11d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,023 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,025 13d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,357 15d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,359 15d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,244 15d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,246 15d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,223 15d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,225 16d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,365 16d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,366 16d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $949 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $750.48 · official $750.48 (match) · 388 history records