Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:42:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bb6…9a46 politics 39 markets active 3h ago coverage 71d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6,559 (-26%) realized −$6,735 · open +$176
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate62%21W / 13L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$646per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2,230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 71d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 93% −$1,609
sports 4% +$199
other 3% +$83
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +10.0% -0.5% 67% 67% -4.8%
≤30d 17 +3.6% -6.2% 71% 47% -27.1%
≤90d 34 +7.2% -3.0% 62% 41% -18.1%
all 34 +7.2% -3.0% 62% 41% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 41% -18.1%
10% -12.3% 29% -25.9%
15% -20.8% 26% -33.1%
20% -28.5% 18% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +11% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$190 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$2,230
Realized−$6,735
Unrealized+$176
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses21 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions5
Markets (closed)34 / 39
History coverage71d
Avg bet$646
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $1,120 $1,184 +$64 (+6%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 15? Yes 85¢ 97¢ $501 $571 +$69 (+14%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $293 $310 +$17 (+6%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 65¢ $100 $126 +$26 (+27%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $149 −$124 -83%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $124 +$26 +21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $67 +$33 +48%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $204 +$27 +13%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $65 +$10 +16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$139 +226%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $43 −$42 -96%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $1,005 −$457 -46%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $4,134 −$994 -24%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 05 $38 +$10 +25%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 05 $456 +$2 +0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the seco Jun 03 $551 +$4 +1%
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? May 30 $125 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Buse/Kiger vs Ho/Jebens May 27 $20 +$2 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado May 26 $15 $0 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 25 $191 −$2 -1%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul May 23 $70 −$8 -11%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Ignacio Buse May 22 $74 −$55 -75%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 21 $31 +$12 +38%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Gonzalo Bueno May 21 $32 +$32 +100%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Ugo Humbert May 21 $92 −$19 -21%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Jakub Mensik May 20 $196 +$322 +165%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Gonzalo Bueno vs Vitaliy Sachko May 20 $11 +$10 +92%
Hamburg European Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ignacio Buse May 19 $154 −$154 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 11 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 11 $51 +$55 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Buse May 09 $101 +$101 +100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 18 $3,966 +$113 +3%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 16 $2,381 −$507 -21%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 15 $1,233 +$43 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 2h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY Yes 92¢ $65 3h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY Yes 91¢ $267 3h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY Yes 87¢ $22 3h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $394 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 31h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 15¢ $26 32h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $149 36h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 2d
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY Yes 77¢ $59 2d
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY Yes 76¢ $41 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $23 2d
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY Yes 70¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $124 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $167 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $44 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $65 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $65 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $73 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $49 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $100 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 87¢ $204 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $43 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $61 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $107 4d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 96¢ $3 13d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,083 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,230.03 · official $2,230.03 (match) · 339 history records