Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:06:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0B 0x0bb6…7319 crypto 769 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$13,516 (-26%) realized −$13,516 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%388W / 685L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day30.7pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 104d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$1,672
sports 3% +$17
other 1% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 467 -70.3% -73.1% 15% 13% -76.5%
≤30d 612 -56.6% -60.8% 23% 21% -66.2%
≤90d 1015 -35.5% -41.6% 35% 32% -45.9%
all 1073 -33.0% -39.4% 36% 33% -43.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.4% 33% -43.1%
10% ← realistic here -45.2% 29% -48.6%
15% -50.5% 26% -53.5%
20% -55.4% 22% -58.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$65 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13,516
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses388 / 685
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1073 / 769
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$68
Trades / day30.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1073 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - September 7, 4AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $180 −$180 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 29, 11AM ET Jun 17 $60 −$50 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
XRP Up or Down - August 9, 9PM ET Jun 17 $220 −$220 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $152 −$152 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $321 −$384 -119%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 13, 8AM ET Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 30, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $87 −$113 -131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $196 −$196 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $174 −$174 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $139 −$139 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 8, 12AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$35 -166%
XRP Up or Down - July 20, 2AM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9PM ET Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $47 −$36 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $133 −$133 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $69 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records