Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:48:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bad…450c politics 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%2W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$409now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$3
other 26% −$1
economics 19% −$1
sports 16% −$1
world 9% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -8.0% -16.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 9 -8.0% -16.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 9 -8.0% -16.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 24 -3.1% -12.3% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$409
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses2 / 22
Open positions4
Markets (closed)24 / 28
History coverage164d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $208 $208 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $199 $198 −$0 (-0%)
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $2 $1 −$0 (-6%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $178 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -19%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -16%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -17%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1 $0 -19%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $219 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? Feb 02 $11 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Feb 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $12 $0 -0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? Jan 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $100 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Jan 20 $396 $0 -0%
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 19 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jan 19 $80 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 19 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Jan 19 $70 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 16 $431 $0 -0%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Jan 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Jan 15 $906 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 13 $498 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 12 $499 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 0m
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 2m
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 24m
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 8h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 9h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2 10h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 10h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 11h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2 11h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 12h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $158 12h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 12h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 13h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 14h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 14h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 15h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 15h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 17h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 18h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 20h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 23h
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $11 140d
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 140d
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $11 140d
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $13 140d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $12 146d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? SELL No 100¢ $12 146d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $12 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $408.51 · official $408.51 (match) · 65 history records