Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:24:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0B
0x0ba5…191e
weather · 461 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$119 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$35
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses197 / 256
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)453 / 461
History coverage41d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day75.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 8 History 453 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$17
14 days−$28
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 96¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+387%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 61¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Yes 38¢ 54¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+40%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 18¢ 21¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Yes 52¢ 33¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Yes 53¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$7 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -70%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 −$5 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $6 −$5 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$4 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$29 +534%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $18 +$24 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $21 −$21 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $7 +$8 +117%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$4 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $19 −$3 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 6? Jun 06 $7 −$6 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 6? Jun 06 $4 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $11 −$5 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $13 +$3 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 6? Jun 06 $4 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 −$8 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $13 −$5 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 88% +$73
crypto 11% −$55
world 1% +$4
politics 0% −$3
other 0% −$5
sports 0% −$2
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 8m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 28m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 31m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 33m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 37m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 38m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 40m
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 48m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 57m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $4 8h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 64¢ $5 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 59¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 79¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 79¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 13h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 77¢ $6 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 93¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 93¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 93¢ $4 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -26.3% -33.3% 26% 19% -17.7%
≤30d 288 +0.7% -8.9% 40% 31% -7.5%
≤90d 453 +0.6% -9.0% 43% 32% -9.5%
all 453 +0.6% -9.0% 43% 32% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover75.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 32% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 25% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 17% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 14% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.15 · official $36.10 (match) · 3332 history records