Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0B 0x0ba1…0365 crypto 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,143 (-5%) realized −$1,140 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%67W / 68L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 43d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$3,089
other 14% −$445
sports 6% −$375
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +30.3% +17.9% 67% 61% -20.8%
≤30d 18 +30.3% +17.9% 67% 61% -20.8%
≤90d 135 -13.9% -22.1% 50% 43% -24.9%
all 135 -13.9% -22.1% 50% 43% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 43% -24.9%
10% -29.6% 36% -32.1%
15% -36.4% 27% -38.6%
20% -42.6% 21% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -22% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$134 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$1,140
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses67 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage43d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 56¢ 50¢ $24 $21 −$3 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $42 −$33 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $711 −$711 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $1,639 −$1,639 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $1,329 +$289 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $1,016 −$868 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $1,002 +$672 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $1,024 +$498 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $1,005 +$68 +7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,013 +$605 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$39 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $47 +$23 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$37 +360%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 21 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 21 $51 −$41 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 21 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $934 −$544 -58%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $321 −$4 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 18 $16 −$15 -97%
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Rinky Hijikata May 18 $102 −$97 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 18 $21 −$17 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 18 $16 −$9 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 18 $21 +$16 +78%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Alexandra Eala vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 18 $102 +$22 +22%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $101 −$99 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 15 $47 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 15 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 15 $57 +$42 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 15 $360 −$352 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 15 $153 +$64 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 15 $155 +$125 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 15 $102 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 15 $1,030 −$1,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 15 $1,025 −$653 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 14 $17 −$8 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 14 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 14 $15 +$11 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 14 $15 +$10 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $24 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $13 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $42 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $950 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $689 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $355 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1,264 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $529 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $800 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $711 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1,016 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,674 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $314 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $688 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1,522 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1,024 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,073 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1,005 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $1,618 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $63 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.83 · official $20.83 (match) · 291 history records