trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +19.0% | +7.7% | 100% | 50% | +5.4% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +6.4% | -3.7% | 100% | 17% | -3.9% |
| all | 22 | -2.5% | -11.8% | 95% | 5% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.8% | 5% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -20.2% | 5% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -27.9% | 5% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -35.0% | 0% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $46 | $46 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 08 | $45 | +$1 | +2% |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | Jun 01 | $33 | +$12 | +36% |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C or below on May 9? | May 09 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? | May 08 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 12°C on March 23? | Apr 27 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on March 9? | Mar 22 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ahmad Vahidi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Mar 09 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February | Mar 05 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on February 26? | Feb 28 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C or higher on Febr | Feb 26 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will a dozen eggs cost >$4.00 in January? | Feb 23 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Post Malone perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Feb 10 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Dua Lipa perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Feb 10 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 37°C on February 7? | Feb 09 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Mexico by January 31? | Feb 07 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch? | Jan 13 | $31 | −$31 | -100% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 January 5-11? | Jan 13 | $30 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 29-January 4? | Jan 06 | $30 | $0 | +1% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? | Jan 01 | $5,169 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? | Dec 31 | $5,159 | +$10 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 30? | Dec 30 | $5,150 | +$9 | +0% |
| Will the price of Solana be above $150 on December 21? | Dec 29 | $33 | $0 | +0% |