Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0B 0x0b99…1421 weather 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate95%21W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$701per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$21
other 33% −$30
weather 1% $0
world 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +19.0% +7.7% 100% 50% +5.4%
≤90d 6 +6.4% -3.7% 100% 17% -3.9%
all 22 -2.5% -11.8% 95% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 5% -9.5%
10% -20.2% 5% -18.2%
15% -27.9% 5% -26.1%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$31 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses21 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage180d
Avg bet$701
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $45 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $33 +$12 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C or below on May 9? May 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 12°C on March 23? Apr 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on March 9? Mar 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ahmad Vahidi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February Mar 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on February 26? Feb 28 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C or higher on Febr Feb 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will a dozen eggs cost >$4.00 in January? Feb 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Post Malone perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dua Lipa perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 37°C on February 7? Feb 09 $33 $0 +0%
US strike on Mexico by January 31? Feb 07 $33 $0 +0%
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jan 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 January 5-11? Jan 13 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 06 $30 $0 +1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 01 $5,169 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 31 $5,159 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 30? Dec 30 $5,150 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on December 21? Dec 29 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $46 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $45 12d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? BUY No 74¢ $33 23d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C or below on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $33 39d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $33 50d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 12°C on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $30 86d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on March 9? BUY No 100¢ $34 99d
Will Ahmad Vahidi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY No 100¢ $34 103d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February BUY No 100¢ $34 108d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on February 26? BUY No 100¢ $34 110d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C or higher on Febr BUY No 100¢ $33 113d
Will a dozen eggs cost >$4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $33 126d
Will Dua Lipa perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY No 100¢ $23 128d
Will Post Malone perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY No 100¢ $10 128d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 37°C on February 7? BUY No 100¢ $33 129d
US strike on Mexico by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $33 137d
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY Yes 54¢ $31 155d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 January 5-11? BUY No 98¢ $30 162d
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 29-January 4? BUY No 99¢ $30 166d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? SELL No 100¢ $5,170 166d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $5,169 167d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 100¢ $5,169 167d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $5,159 168d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 30? SELL No 100¢ $735 169d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 30? SELL No 100¢ $1,485 169d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 30? SELL No 100¢ $365 169d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 30? SELL No 100¢ $38 169d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 30? SELL No 100¢ $36 169d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 30? SELL No 100¢ $33 169d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 30? SELL No 100¢ $38 169d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.65 · official $45.65 (match) · 52 history records