Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:42:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b97…9e90 politics 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 692d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$22 (+1%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% +$22
politics 32% −$5
sports 13% +$3
crypto 12% +$1
tech 10% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 27 +0.4% -9.1% 52% 26% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 26% -8.6%
10% -17.8% 15% -17.4%
15% -25.8% 11% -25.4%
20% -33.1% 11% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.19 per $1 lost it wins $3.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

692d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage692d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 55¢ 58¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 19 $211 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $200 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? Apr 24 $250 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $240 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 24 $220 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $290 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $90 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $70 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 16 $90 $0 -0%
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 31, 2025? Feb 13 $1 $0 +28%
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Visual Effects at the 2026 Critics Feb 13 $2 $0 +12%
US defaults on debt in 2025? Feb 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by November 30? Dec 09 $1 $0 +8%
Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be les Nov 25 $2 +$1 +56%
Will Russia enter Kostyantynivka by October 31? Nov 12 $2 −$1 -45%
Will Vegas Matt be profitable: Week of October 12 Oct 23 $2 $0 +13%
Will Suez Canal traffic recover to pre-Houthi levels before September? Oct 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump attend the FIFA Club World Cup finals? Jul 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down – May 31 (2 PM ET Candle) Jul 07 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Payton Pritchard win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? May 31 $5 +$3 +56%
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.20°C? Feb 18 $3 $0 +6%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the Eastern Conference? Dec 23 $295 $0 +0%
Will Scotland beat Portugal? Dec 20 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Oct 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania US Senate Election? Oct 15 $12 −$1 -11%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Aug 09 $184 +$21 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $211 1h
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $200 1h
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $200 3d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $211 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $250 56d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $240 56d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $110 56d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $250 56d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 56d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $109 56d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 56d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $240 56d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $145 63d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $90 63d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $70 63d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $145 65d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $144 65d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $145 65d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $90 65d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $70 65d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $90 123d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $90 125d
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 31, 2025? BUY No 78¢ $1 175d
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Visual Effects at the 2026 Critics BUY Yes 72¢ $1 192d
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Visual Effects at the 2026 Critics SELL Yes 46¢ $0 192d
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Visual Effects at the 2026 Critics BUY Yes 72¢ $1 192d
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by November 30? BUY No 93¢ $1 206d
Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be les BUY No 56¢ $1 219d
Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be les SELL No 55¢ $1 219d
Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be les BUY No 56¢ $1 219d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.63 · official $4.63 (match) · 88 history records