Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:51:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0B
0x0b96…f5ef
weather · 122 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$42 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11 · open −$46
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$224
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses27 / 53
Open positions42
Markets (closed)80 / 122
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day93.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 42 History 80 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $66 $66 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? No 74¢ 81¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 14? No 88¢ 90¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? No 81¢ 81¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 84¢ 84¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 74¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? No 91¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? No 80¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 74¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? No 72¢ 66¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? No 79¢ 70¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 14? No 92¢ 72¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? No 4¢ 4¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? No 58¢ 68¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? No 95¢ 22¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-77%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? No 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? No 54¢ 44¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 14? No 82¢ 90¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? No 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? Yes 24¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Yes 44¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Yes 37¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Yes 32¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? No 23¢ 12¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$19 +486%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +238%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +167%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +263%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$27 +53%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 +$1 +110%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +190%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +182%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +110%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$9 +899%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$10 +931%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$4 +348%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 59% −$24
other 41% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 79¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 74¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 72¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 81¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 97¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 92¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 94¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? SELL No 94¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 15¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 4¢ $2 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 14? SELL No 70¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 22¢ $1 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 23¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 1¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 11¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 4¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +1.6% -8.1% 34% 34% -14.1%
≤30d 80 +1.6% -8.1% 34% 34% -14.1%
≤90d 80 +1.6% -8.1% 34% 34% -14.1%
all 80 +1.6% -8.1% 34% 34% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover93.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 34% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 32% -22.3%
15% -24.9% 31% -29.8%
20% -32.3% 29% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.40 · official $224.41 (match) · 177 history records