Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:15:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b93…d05f world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$6
other 15% −$1
politics 12% −$1
crypto 5% −$4
weather 3% $0
finance 3% $0
sports 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 17 +24.2% +12.4% 29% 6% -10.9%
≤90d 19 +21.3% +9.7% 26% 5% -10.9%
all 41 +7.3% -2.9% 39% 5% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 5% -10.4%
10% -12.2% 5% -19.0%
15% -20.7% 2% -26.8%
20% -28.5% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage475d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $38 +$1 +3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $8 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $4 $0 -10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $41 −$4 -9%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 25 $11 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $19 −$3 -17%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $22 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $9 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $6 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $41 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $13 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 20 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $1 $0 -7%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Apr 01 $3 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 12 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C Apr 11 $2 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Viktor Hovland win The 2025 Masters? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on April 4? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in April? Apr 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 02 $22 +$1 +4%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Mar 31 $16 $0 -0%
2025 March hottest on record? Mar 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 31 $10 −$4 -37%
10-year Treasury yield below 4% before April? Mar 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $19 −$2 -10%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 23 $2 $0 -5%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or higher on March 21? Mar 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Million" 10+ times during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 21 $20 +$1 +3%
Yale vs. Dartmouth Mar 20 $16 +$5 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $11 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $27 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $38 3h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 13h
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $8 22d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $8 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $31 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $31 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $10 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $17 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $8 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $34 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $38 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $41 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $11 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $11 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $16 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $19 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 28¢ $23 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $13 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $9 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 132 history records