Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:16:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0B 0x0b93…1e6f sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,839 (-10%) realized −$1,826 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,263per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$558now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$3,254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$1,097
other 30% +$45
politics 20% −$35
crypto 4% −$748
world 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 2 -50.6% -55.3% 0% 0% -92.3%
≤90d 6 -16.3% -24.3% 50% 0% -48.6%
all 13 -12.5% -20.9% 46% 15% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 15% -18.5%
10% -28.4% 15% -26.3%
15% -35.4% 15% -33.4%
20% -41.7% 8% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$470 vs −$664 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$558
Realized−$1,826
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage153d
Avg bet$1,263
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by August 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $283 $283 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? No 79¢ 76¢ $288 $275 −$13 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $305 −$4 -1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3,250 −$3,250 -100%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? May 22 $437 −$6 -1%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $1,407 +$32 +2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,040 +$6 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $974 +$18 +2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $2,900 +$1 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $1,359 −$5 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 14 $1,112 −$22 -2%
T20 World Cup: Pakistan vs USA (Game 1) Feb 10 $612 −$612 -100%
U19 World Cup: England Under-19s vs India Under-19s Feb 10 $2,415 +$1,085 +45%
Canadiens vs. Wild Feb 06 $1,820 +$1,680 +92%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.00 on January 22? Jan 22 $748 −$748 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by August 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $283 1h
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $301 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $3,250 18d
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $305 22d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $431 32d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $147 41d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $290 41d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 90¢ $368 57d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 89¢ $365 62d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 79¢ $288 63d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $1,045 69d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $1,040 76d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 89¢ $1,072 78d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $992 78d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 87¢ $60 85d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 87¢ $30 85d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 87¢ $33 85d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 87¢ $11 86d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 87¢ $908 86d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $974 93d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $668 100d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $27 100d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $757 100d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $98 100d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $8 100d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $218 100d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $115 100d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $128 100d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $49 100d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $61 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $557.76 · official $557.76 (match) · 89 history records