Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:54:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0B 0x0b92…6e0d crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$72 (+31%) realized +$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$82
sports 4% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +5.7% -4.3% 50% 42% +19.1%
≤30d 12 +5.7% -4.3% 50% 42% +19.1%
≤90d 12 +5.7% -4.3% 50% 42% +19.1%
all 12 +5.7% -4.3% 50% 42% +19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 42% +19.1%
10% -13.5% 42% +7.7%
15% -21.8% 42% -2.7%
20% -29.5% 25% -12.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$16 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$28 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$27 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$99 +374%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records