Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:42:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b91…40e7 other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 373d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-3%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate27%10W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$9
world 41% −$1
politics 3% −$12
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 2% −$6
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 17 +1.7% -8.0% 24% 6% -9.9%
≤90d 18 -0.7% -10.2% 22% 6% -10.8%
all 37 -2.0% -11.4% 27% 5% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 5% -12.3%
10% -19.8% 5% -20.7%
15% -27.6% 0% -28.4%
20% -34.7% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

373d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses10 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage373d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $42 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $38 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $48 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 04 $15 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $42 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $2 +$1 +35%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $19 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $42 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $39 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $38 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $41 −$2 -5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $44 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $5 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $13 −$6 -42%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $33 −$9 -26%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $12 $0 +2%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 24 $20 −$12 -60%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Jul 06 $2 $0 -7%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 06 $9 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 06 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 01 $22 $0 +2%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 24 $22 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Jun 16 $2 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $42 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $42 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $3 11h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $4 11h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 11h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $30 15h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $9 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 26h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $29 30h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $14 30h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $43 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $43 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $43 40h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $3 20d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $7 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $5 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $15 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $27 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $27 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $42 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $42 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $7 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $12 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records