Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b91…ae77 other 284 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 145d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$28,735 (+14%) realized +$28,405 · open +$330
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate37%97W / 166L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$710per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$102est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$8,145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$92
7 days+$4,164
14 days+$4,290
30 days+$4,290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$9,462
other 33% −$651
politics 17% +$10,760
sports 6% +$228
finance 4% −$434
crypto 1% +$119
culture 1% +$616
tech 1% −$82
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +33.9% +21.2% 22% 22% +20.8%
≤30d 19 +41.1% +27.7% 26% 26% +21.5%
≤90d 130 -14.6% -22.7% 32% 26% -4.6%
all 263 -10.2% -18.8% 37% 31% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 31% -0.1%
10% -26.5% 27% -9.6%
15% ← realistic here -33.6% 21% -18.4%
20% -40.1% 17% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$800) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$575 vs −$217 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$8,145
Realized+$28,405
Unrealized+$330
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses97 / 166
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$102
Open positions38
Markets (closed)263 / 284
History coverage145d ⚠
Avg bet$710
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 34¢ 96¢ $880 $2,496 +$1,616 (+183%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 67¢ 99¢ $1,318 $1,945 +$627 (+48%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1,130 $1,255 +$125 (+11%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $777 $1,029 +$252 (+32%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $1,257 $375 −$882 (-70%)
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $456 $276 −$180 (-39%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 19¢ 20¢ $194 $209 +$15 (+8%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $241 $131 −$110 (-46%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $113 $119 +$7 (+6%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $293 $119 −$175 (-60%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 4¢ $300 $73 −$227 (-76%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $50 $32 −$17 (-35%)
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $65 $31 −$34 (-53%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $48 $29 −$19 (-39%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $48 $23 −$25 (-52%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $8 $1 −$8 (-93%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-76%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 33¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-93%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $1,744 +$501 +29%
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $339 −$339 -100%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $35 −$34 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $5,655 +$4,894 +86%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $407 −$272 -67%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $1,627 −$45 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $90 +$190 +212%
Clippers vs. Trail Blazers Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Equatorial Guinea 0 - 0 Comoros? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary electi Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? Jun 14 $461 −$203 -44%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Jun 14 $401 −$401 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 14 $389 −$389 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $205 −$200 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $103 +$1,564 +1521%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $74 +$126 +170%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 17 $168 −$168 -100%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 RBC Heritage? May 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Arvell Reese be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? May 17 $680 −$680 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 17 $438 −$291 -66%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 RBC Heritage? May 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 RBC Heritage? May 17 $128 −$128 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? May 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 17 $594 −$489 -82%
Will Hao-Tong Li finish as leader after Round 1? May 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 100 seats? May 17 $536 −$402 -75%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 RBC Heritage? May 17 $469 −$469 -100%
Will Tisza win 120-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in thi May 17 $446 −$446 -100%
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 RBC Heritage? May 17 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Tisza win 110–119 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in thi May 17 $372 −$372 -100%
Will Tisza win 100–109 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in thi May 17 $311 −$289 -93%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament May 17 $487 −$487 -100%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 17 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 RBC Heritage? May 17 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 17 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 17 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 17 $176 −$43 -24%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 17 $307 −$307 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 17 $8,121 +$3,662 +45%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 17 $551 −$551 -100%
Will Kurt Kitayama win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 17 $103 −$101 -98%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? May 17 $69 +$34 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 6¢ $44 30m
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 5¢ $160 43m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $514 1h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 19¢ $121 8h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 19¢ $0 9h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 19¢ $65 11h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 19¢ $4 11h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 19¢ $4 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $1,080 22h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $22 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $0 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $1,380 23h
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 24h
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 24h
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 24h
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 24h
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 24h
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 24h
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 24h
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 24h
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 24h
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 24h
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 24h
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 24h
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 24h
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 24h
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 24h
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 24h
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 24h
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,144.98 · official $8,144.98 (match) · 3500 history records