Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:23:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b91…4ffe crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$29 (+7%) realized +$27 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day44.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$109
sports 28% +$18
other 15% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -20.5% -28.1% 48% 48% -31.9%
≤30d 27 -20.5% -28.1% 48% 48% -31.9%
≤90d 27 -20.5% -28.1% 48% 48% -31.9%
all 27 -20.5% -28.1% 48% 48% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.1% 48% -31.9%
10% ← realistic here -34.9% 41% -38.4%
15% -41.2% 30% -44.4%
20% -47.0% 26% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$14 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day44.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Down 42¢ 44¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $73 −$70 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $41 −$39 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$13 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $22 +$16 +71%
Brazil to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 25 $8 +$2 +30%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$4 +20%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $18 +$15 +79%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 +$9 +30%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Morocco to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -96%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 24 $5 +$1 +17%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $18 +$7 +37%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $14 +$11 +76%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $10 +$7 +70%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$5 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $17 −$2 -12%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 24 $1 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $8 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $11 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $63 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $16 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $28 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $11 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $38 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $13 2h
Brazil to score first vs. Scotland? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $19 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 15h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 18h
Morocco to score first vs. Haiti? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 18h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $10 18h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $10 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 18h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes $4 18h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $10 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.60 · official $26.60 (match) · 53 history records