Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:03:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
0B 0x0b8d…4b6f sports 218 markets active 0h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$671 (+1%) realized +$580 · open +$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate71%149W / 61L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$156est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$160
7 days+$314
14 days+$152
30 days−$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$283
other 21% +$148
crypto 1% +$38
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +16.9% +5.8% 68% 61% +0.6%
≤30d 135 +18.9% +7.5% 68% 56% -10.3%
≤90d 209 +15.7% +4.7% 71% 50% -8.8%
all 210 +15.2% +4.2% 71% 50% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.2% 50% -8.8%
10% -5.8% 44% -17.6%
15% -14.9% 36% -25.5%
20% -23.2% 26% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$61 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$1,272
Realized+$580
Unrealized+$91
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses149 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$156
Open positions8
Markets (closed)210 / 218
History coverage250d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 210 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 97¢ 100¢ $778 $802 +$24 (+3%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Paper Rex 65¢ 100¢ $100 $154 +$54 (+54%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $104 $124 +$20 (+19%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Paper Rex 68¢ 64¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $52 $42 −$10 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $27 $36 +$9 (+35%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Yes 52¢ 48¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 +$15 +73%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $51 +$68 +134%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +48%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $101 +$46 +46%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $101 +$63 +62%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $101 +$48 +48%
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 20 $18 +$4 +24%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $91 −$36 -40%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $301 +$42 +14%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$12 +114%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $101 +$52 +51%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3 +$7 +206%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $101 +$61 +60%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $857 +$45 +5%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $22 −$15 -69%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $30 +$30 +97%
Will The MongolZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $340 +$7 +2%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $102 +$131 +129%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$20 +67%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$71 +70%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $101 +$50 +50%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $61 −$37 -60%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$91 +89%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $111 +$189 +170%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $289 +$59 +21%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$80 +79%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $441 +$47 +11%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $92 −$92 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $111 −$105 -95%
Will Team Spirit qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $106 +$8 +8%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$7 +64%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$2 -31%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $350 −$349 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $69 +$20 +30%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $214 +$62 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $51 +$36 +70%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 +$48 +94%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $129 +$71 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 1m
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Paper Rex 68¢ $101 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $51 23h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 57¢ $20 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 23h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 68¢ $101 25h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL No 99¢ $196 25h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 61¢ $101 26h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $22 26h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 67¢ $101 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 88¢ $48 45h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 87¢ $301 46h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $101 47h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 58¢ $42 47h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 97¢ $26 2d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 97¢ $905 2d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 97¢ $39 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 49¢ $51 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 4d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 65¢ $101 5d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 29¢ $8 5d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 29¢ $1 5d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 29¢ $1 5d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 29¢ $0 5d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 29¢ $1 5d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 29¢ $3 5d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 29¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,272.23 · official $1,272.23 (match) · 595 history records