Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:14:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0B 0x0b8a…d3b5 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$497 (+36%) realized +$497 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%12W / 22L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$481
14 days+$481
30 days+$481
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$222
sports 6% +$284
tech 2% −$5
crypto 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +38.5% +25.3% 35% 35% +21.9%
≤30d 34 +38.5% +25.3% 35% 35% +21.9%
≤90d 34 +38.5% +25.3% 35% 35% +21.9%
all 34 +38.5% +25.3% 35% 35% +21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.3% 35% +21.9%
10% +13.3% 35% +10.2%
15% +2.3% 29% -0.5%
20% -7.7% 26% -10.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +55% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$19 · ×3.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$497
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses12 / 22
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage7d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 18 $30 −$1 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 18 $31 −$2 -6%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$24 +234%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$214 +1386%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$83 +81%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +223%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $105 +$24 +23%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$61 +596%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -53%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $132 +$144 +109%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $10 +$15 +150%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $72 −$70 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$118 +116%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $304 +$126 +41%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $67 −$65 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 42¢ $29 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $34 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $184 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $33 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $130 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $77 4d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 73¢ $57 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records