Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:45:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b8a…355c crypto 1494 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$868 (+13%) realized +$870 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate24%368W / 1180L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day36.9pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$444
7 days−$332
14 days−$204
30 days−$319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$35
other 2% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 550 -48.0% -52.9% 20% 20% -52.7%
≤30d 889 -6.1% -15.1% 40% 39% -14.7%
≤90d 1548 -29.8% -36.5% 24% 23% -19.6%
all 1548 -29.8% -36.5% 24% 23% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.5% 23% -19.6%
10% ← realistic here -42.6% 22% -27.3%
15% -48.1% 21% -34.3%
20% -53.2% 20% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$870
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses368 / 1180
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1548 / 1494
History coverage85d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day36.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1548 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Down 44¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 5, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $0 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.72 (match) · 3500 history records