Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:58:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0B 0x0b8a…20d6 other 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$414 (+15%) realized +$418 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate61%54W / 35L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$271now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$388
7 days+$171
14 days+$392
30 days+$392
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$250
sports 37% +$153
crypto 4% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +5.4% -4.7% 58% 50% -2.6%
≤30d 89 +9.6% -0.9% 61% 53% +4.4%
≤90d 89 +9.6% -0.9% 61% 53% +4.4%
all 89 +9.6% -0.9% 61% 53% +4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 53% +4.4%
10% -10.4% 42% -5.6%
15% -19.0% 37% -14.7%
20% -27.0% 33% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$19 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$271
Realized+$418
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses54 / 35
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions17
Markets (closed)89 / 106
History coverage9d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? No 94¢ 94¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 88¢ 88¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? No 86¢ 86¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 60¢ 58¢ $25 $25 −$1 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 40¢ 38¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-4%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Cabo Verde 63¢ 62¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 62¢ 62¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? No 58¢ 57¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Egypt leading at halftime? No 57¢ 56¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay leading at halftime? No 52¢ 52¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 46¢ 44¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Yes 35¢ 34¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 33¢ 32¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Under 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Spain leading at halftime? No 29¢ 28¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? No 12¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $42 +$10 +24%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $14 +$7 +55%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $47 +$5 +10%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $22 +$9 +42%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $13 +$8 +60%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $46 +$3 +6%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $46 +$3 +7%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $16 +$5 +29%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $18 −$17 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $23 +$19 +83%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $14 +$7 +50%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $12 +$9 +73%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $38 +$5 +12%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $43 +$4 +10%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $49 +$4 +8%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $12 +$9 +73%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $19 −$18 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 $0 -3%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $61 −$61 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 19 $43 −$43 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 +$6 +40%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $12 +$9 +70%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $11 +$10 +97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $47 +$2 +5%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $38 +$4 +12%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $45 +$5 +11%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $12 +$9 +79%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $11 +$10 +97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$11 +105%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $42 +$6 +14%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $23 −$22 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$9 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $12 47m
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY No 94¢ $42 49m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $12 50m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 40¢ $17 51m
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 86¢ $40 53m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 88¢ $42 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $13 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 63¢ $13 1h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $11 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 60¢ $26 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $7 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 29¢ $5 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 46¢ $10 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 29¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $2 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $11 21h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL No 51¢ $11 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 80¢ $42 21h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 91¢ $47 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY No 64¢ $14 21h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $11 21h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY No 93¢ $46 21h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY No 94¢ $46 22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $13 22h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $12 22h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $16 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $9 22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $18 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $271.20 · official $271.20 (match) · 189 history records