Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:19:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b88…419b world 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%27W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$7
politics 18% $0
other 15% −$2
sports 9% −$7
economics 6% $0
finance 2% $0
crypto 2% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.0% -12.3% 0% 0% -13.7%
≤30d 24 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 68 +28.7% +16.5% 35% 1% -9.9%
all 76 +21.0% +9.4% 36% 4% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.4% 4% -10.2%
10% -1.0% 3% -18.8%
15% -10.6% 1% -26.6%
20% -19.4% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses27 / 49
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage526d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $41 −$4 -9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $100 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $51 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $128 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $151 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $88 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $40 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $51 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $53 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $68 −$6 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $48 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $82 −$2 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $42 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $9 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $70 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $11 −$1 -12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $59 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $22 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $41 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $48 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $3 $0 +2%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? May 08 $22 +$5 +21%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 07 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $4 $0 +4%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 06 $47 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $108 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $22 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $52 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $109 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $3 $0 -5%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $151 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $32 −$1 -3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $88 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $92 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $3 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $44 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $37 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $37 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 18h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 87¢ $8 43h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $4 43h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $1 43h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $22 43h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $3 43h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 97¢ $41 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $41 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $41 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $37 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $37 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $29 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $8 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $7 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $4 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $9 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $19 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $11 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 393 history records