Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:38:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b87…cc28 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate39%13W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$1
other 22% $0
politics 6% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.4% -9.9% 44% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 +0.6% -9.0% 39% 11% -9.9%
≤90d 18 +0.6% -9.0% 39% 11% -9.9%
all 33 +0.4% -9.1% 39% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 6% -9.7%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage454d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 51¢ 54¢ $45 $48 +$3 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $119 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $41 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $37 +$1 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $63 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $4 $0 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $10 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $89 −$9 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $43 +$5 +12%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $1 $0 +20%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $45 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $52 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $4 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $1 $0 -8%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Dec 16 $29 −$1 -2%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 04 $13 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 02 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 24 $14 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump impose film tariff by Friday? May 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 07 $8 $0 -1%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 07 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $14 +$1 +4%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Mar 29 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Mar 28? Mar 27 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $33 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $12 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $19 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $35 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $20 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $35 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $60 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $60 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $19 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $35 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $40 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $10 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $41 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $41 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $37 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $37 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $37 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $37 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $13 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $22 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $14 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $26 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $26 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.06 · official $48.06 (match) · 108 history records