Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:25:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b85…a92b crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$28 (-6%) realized −$29 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day42.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$72
sports 21% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -25.7% -32.8% 54% 31% -26.6%
≤30d 13 -25.7% -32.8% 54% 31% -26.6%
≤90d 13 -25.7% -32.8% 54% 31% -26.6%
all 13 -25.7% -32.8% 54% 31% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.8% 31% -26.6%
10% ← realistic here -39.2% 23% -33.6%
15% -45.1% 23% -40.0%
20% -50.5% 15% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$20 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day42.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Over 70¢ 70¢ $102 $103 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $43 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$12 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $45 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET Jun 25 $18 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $48 −$37 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $18 +$11 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $62 −$27 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $47 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $17 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$13 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $103 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $18 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.54 · official $102.54 (match) · 42 history records