Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:20:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b84…f8c0 other 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$551per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$11
politics 14% −$3
tech 8% −$2
world 8% −$1
economics 8% −$2
crypto 7% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 30 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 30 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,057) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage90d
Avg bet$551
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $36 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $1,242 −$2 -0%
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 27 $1,265 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 27 $1,289 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 26 $53 $0 -0%
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? Jun 26 $1,315 −$1 -0%
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 26 $1,246 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $1,228 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 25 $79 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? May 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $19 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30? May 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19? May 20 $66 $0 +0%
Will Cameron Norrie win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 19 $972 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee May 19 $12 $0 -1%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $982 −$1 -0%
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 18 $68 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $1,005 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? May 17 $1,024 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $1,939 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 11-17? May 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $999 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $1,057 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $126 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $152 $0 -0%
Will Byeong Hun An win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $73 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Mar 29 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 25m
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,241 34m
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 41m
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,205 48m
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 53m
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL No 100¢ $1,263 1h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 100¢ $1,252 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $991 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $297 1h
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 100¢ $13 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,289 2h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 17h
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1,314 17h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17h
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1,243 17h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 18h
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,245 18h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 18h
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,230 18h
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $36 18h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $947 18h
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 18h
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $36 19h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $280 19h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,228 19h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 SELL No 100¢ $79 32d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $62 32d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $29 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records