Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b81…4289 finance 7 markets active 16d ago coverage 78d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+6%) realized −$2 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 29% −$2
finance 22% +$4
world 10% $0
politics 12% +$2
sports 12% −$2
other 14% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-49.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +10.9% +0.3% 50% 50% +0.4%
≤90d 4 -44.6% -49.8% 25% 25% -50.1%
all 4 -44.6% -49.8% 25% 25% -50.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.8% 25% -50.1%
10% -54.6% 25% -54.8%
15% -59.0% 25% -59.2%
20% -63.0% 25% -63.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage78d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 49¢ 90¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+82%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 49¢ 99¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+103%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 62¢ 50¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -45%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Jun 09 $2 +$3 +122%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.12 · official $13.12 (match) · 9 history records