trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? | Yes | 5¢ | 6¢ | $439 | $468 | +$29 (+7%) |
| Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $321 | $296 | −$25 (-8%) |
| Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $261 | $243 | −$19 (-7%) |
| Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $27 | $27 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | Yes | 37¢ | 0¢ | $2,895 | $0 | −$2,895 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Jun 11 | $58,693 | −$3,286 | -6% |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | May 18 | $2,940 | −$2,895 | -98% |
| Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | May 06 | $1,158 | −$1,158 | -100% |
| Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? | Mar 19 | $1,325 | −$1,207 | -91% |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | Mar 19 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | Mar 19 | $285 | −$285 | -100% |
| Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship? | Mar 19 | $17 | −$17 | -100% |
| Will the Rams win the NFC Championship? | Mar 19 | $300 | −$300 | -100% |
| Spread: Texans (-3.5) | Mar 19 | $244 | −$244 | -100% |
| Will the Steelers win the AFC Championship? | Mar 19 | $333 | −$333 | -100% |
| Will the Baltimore Ravens win the AFC North? | Jan 12 | $72 | −$72 | -100% |
| Spread: Bills (-1.5) | Jan 12 | $141 | −$141 | -100% |
| Spread: Bengals (-7.5) | Jan 12 | $154 | −$154 | -100% |
| Spread: Eagles (-6.5) | Jan 12 | $199 | −$199 | -100% |
| Will the Houston Texans win the AFC South? | Jan 12 | $180 | −$180 | -100% |
| Will the Eagles win the 2026 NFC Championship? | Jan 12 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Spread: Rams (-11.5) | Jan 12 | $299 | −$299 | -100% |
| Will the Chargers win the AFC Championship? | Jan 12 | $54 | −$54 | -100% |
| Spread: Patriots (-3.5) | Jan 12 | $500 | −$500 | -100% |
| Titans vs. Jaguars | Jan 12 | $303 | −$303 | -100% |
| Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? | Jan 12 | $413 | −$413 | -100% |
| Ravens vs. Steelers | Jan 12 | $8,883 | −$8,883 | -100% |
| 49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 45.5 | Jan 12 | $117 | +$100 | +85% |
| Spread: Packers (-1.5) | Jan 12 | $300 | +$210 | +70% |
| Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5) | Jan 04 | $108 | −$108 | -100% |
| Spread: 49ers (-3.5) | Jan 04 | $113 | −$113 | -100% |
| Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5) | Jan 04 | $7 | +$5 | +75% |
| Spread: Seahawks (-1.5) | Jan 04 | $48 | +$50 | +104% |
| Spread: 49ers (-1.5) | Jan 04 | $131 | +$91 | +70% |
| Seahawks vs. 49ers | Jan 04 | $217 | +$200 | +92% |
| Spread: Rams (-8.5) | Dec 30 | $20 | +$17 | +85% |
| Spread: Bengals (-6.5) | Dec 29 | $117 | +$100 | +85% |
| Spread: Buccaneers (-6.5) | Dec 29 | $122 | +$100 | +82% |
| Spread: Steelers (-4.5) | Dec 29 | $140 | +$145 | +104% |
| Steelers vs. Browns | Dec 29 | $100 | +$203 | +203% |
| Spread: Steelers (-3.5) | Dec 29 | $200 | +$225 | +113% |
| Spread: Jaguars (-6.5) | Dec 29 | $288 | +$200 | +70% |
| Spread: Bills (-2.5) | Dec 29 | $229 | −$229 | -100% |
| Jaguars vs. Colts | Dec 29 | $300 | −$300 | -100% |
| Bears vs. 49ers | Dec 28 | $100 | $0 | -0% |
| 49ers vs. Colts | Dec 28 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Spread: 49ers (-6.5) | Dec 28 | $239 | −$239 | -100% |
| Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 28 | $103 | −$62 | -60% |
| Spread: Saints (-6.5) | Dec 22 | $104 | +$100 | +96% |
| Spread: Chiefs (-3.5) | Dec 22 | $108 | +$100 | +92% |
| Chargers vs. Cowboys | Dec 22 | $100 | +$108 | +108% |
| Spread: Cowboys (-2.5) | Dec 22 | $109 | +$100 | +92% |
| Spread: Bills (-10.5) | Dec 22 | $200 | +$200 | +100% |
| Spread: Vikings (-2.5) | Dec 22 | $217 | +$200 | +92% |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | Dec 22 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -5.6% | -14.6% | 0% | 0% | -14.6% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -52.8% | -57.3% | 0% | 0% | -18.6% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -89.7% | -90.7% | 0% | 0% | -23.1% |
| all | 174 | -10.1% | -18.7% | 44% | 42% | -29.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -18.7% | 42% | -29.9% |
| 10% | -26.5% | 42% | -36.6% |
| 15% | -33.6% | 42% | -42.8% |
| 20% | -40.1% | 41% | -48.4% |