Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:06:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b6b…d677 crypto 507 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$345 (+7%) realized +$345 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate50%252W / 254L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$2
14 days+$495
30 days+$495
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$72
sports 36% +$536
other 21% −$150
world 1% −$52
politics 1% +$21
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -4.0% -13.2% 47% 47% -9.6%
≤30d 59 -11.9% -20.3% 32% 29% +7.9%
≤90d 410 -23.6% -30.9% 43% 24% -5.2%
all 506 -14.3% -22.4% 50% 27% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 27% -4.5%
10% -29.9% 20% -13.6%
15% -36.6% 16% -22.0%
20% -42.8% 15% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$345
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses252 / 254
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)506 / 507
History coverage95d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 506 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Philadelphia Phillies 45¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $333 −$135 -40%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $134 −$90 -67%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $94 +$158 +169%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $55 −$1 -2%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $49 +$57 +116%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $28 +$22 +82%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $159 +$41 +26%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $186 +$48 +26%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $53 −$52 -99%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$24 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 +$30 +150%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $35 +$15 +44%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $28 +$8 +28%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $49 −$19 -39%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 $0 -8%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 −$8 -16%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -10%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $12 −$1 -7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $7 −$1 -10%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 14 $17 −$1 -8%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 14 $24 −$1 -6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $49 −$4 -7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $9 −$1 -7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $13 −$12 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $50 −$3 -6%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 −$2 -8%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$17 +90%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$83 +403%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $29 +$18 +62%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $29 +$20 +67%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $191 +$9 +5%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $118 +$485 +411%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $98 +$12 +12%
United States vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $20 −$1 -3%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $81 +$133 +164%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 45¢ $2 36m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $65 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $44 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $44 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 35¢ $134 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 32¢ $134 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $38 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $251 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL 42¢ $54 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY 36¢ $43 37h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 41¢ $55 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY 37¢ $51 45h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL 97¢ $107 46h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 44¢ $49 2d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 100¢ $234 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 55¢ $28 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 79¢ $159 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 5d
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $5 6d
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $15 6d
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $4 6d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $25 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 6d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 6d
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $20 7d
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 7d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 69¢ $19 7d
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.86 · official $1.86 (match) · 1598 history records