Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:12:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0B 0x0b69…d945 crypto 1580 markets active 21h ago coverage 149d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 149d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$67 (+0%) realized +$71 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate91%1435W / 147L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$147
world 2% −$23
sports 1% −$16
politics 1% +$22
other 0% $0
finance 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -2.2% -11.5% 89% 18% -10.0%
≤30d 353 -0.5% -10.0% 90% 17% -9.6%
≤90d 945 +0.5% -9.0% 92% 17% -9.4%
all 1582 +0.3% -9.3% 91% 15% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 15% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 13% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 10% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$71
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1435 / 147
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1582 / 1580
History coverage149d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1582 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 55¢ 34¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 49¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 124 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Harvard Crimson (-4.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bills vs. Broncos Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 23? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 16? Jun 16 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 16? Jun 16 $60 $0 +0%
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $2 +$1 +36%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 21h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 21h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 23h
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 23h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 23h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 43h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 67¢ $1 46h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Madison Keys 73¢ $1 46h
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) BUY Hanfmann 54¢ $1 47h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 69¢ $1 47h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 71¢ $1 47h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 47h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $30 47h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 47h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 56¢ $1 3d
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio BUY Sebastian Ofner 75¢ $1 3d
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 61¢ $1 3d
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski BUY Gustavo Heide 73¢ $1 3d
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 81¢ $1 3d
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain BUY Gilles Arnaud Bailly 72¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.70 · official $6.70 (match) · 3500 history records