Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:16:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b67…d6fe politics 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,448 (-1%) realized −$1,448 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,175per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$635now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$11
14 days−$31
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$1,378
politics 41% −$83
sports 5% −$8
economics 3% −$4
world 2% −$4
tech 1% −$1
culture 1% −$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 42 -0.4% -9.9% 10% 2% -9.7%
≤90d 127 -3.1% -12.3% 10% 6% -10.4%
all 131 -3.0% -12.2% 10% 5% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 5% -10.4%
10% -20.6% 5% -19.0%
15% -28.3% 5% -26.8%
20% -35.3% 5% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,557) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$16 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$635
Realized−$1,448
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage94d
Avg bet$1,175
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $635 $635 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $1,164 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,251 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,233 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $189 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,798 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $3,640 −$4 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,293 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $1,128 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $3,681 −$4 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,358 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,876 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,265 −$2 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 10 $682 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,513 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $965 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,937 −$3 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $749 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $58 +$109 +188%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $734 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,745 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $834 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,879 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $62 −$62 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $61 −$61 -100%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,403 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $258 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 31 $375 $0 +0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 29 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $419 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,186 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $1,051 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $582 −$1 -0%
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $66 +$47 +70%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $2,446 −$3 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $65 +$88 +134%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $2,755 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $635 1h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $620 17h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $621 20h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $532 20h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $533 23h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $662 24h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $663 27h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $608 41h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $609 43h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $395 44h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $396 47h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $298 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $298 6d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $731 6d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $732 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $820 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $821 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $739 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $740 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $601 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $601 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $594 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $594 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $593 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $594 8d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $697 8d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $698 9d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $642 10d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $642 10d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $586 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $634.56 · official $634.56 (match) · 414 history records